Monday, November 29, 2010

The blogosphere is buzz about the end of recession, after few years of grueling existence as modern humans. But "to call this recession over is tantamount to calling an operation successful when the patient is tethered to an oxygen tank and needs 24 hour nursing care. In other words, the designation may be technically correct, but also shows how low the threshold of “success” is considered to be."

Moreover, a new phenomenon (or just a phrase) has emerged: balance sheet recession.

This recession "results when the private sector seeks to minimize debt rather than maximize profit.

"GDP cannot be maintained in such situations unless the government steps in to borrow (and spend) the surplus savings resulting from private-sector deleveraging. The question of how the government spends the savings is of secondary importance.

"In a world in which damaged balance sheets leave businesses and households paying down debt and unwilling to borrow money despite zero interest rates, demand shrinks by the amount of private savings."

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